Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a significant new commitment last week, pledging to reduce the nation’s economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, marking China’s first official pledge to cut overall emissions. This new target, along with a commitment to expand wind and solar power capacity to over 3,600 Gigawatts (GW)—more than six times 2020 levels—will be included in China’s upcoming 2035 “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. While state media hailed the pledge as a “milestone,” international climate experts criticized the ambition as “falling well short of what is achievable,” noting that internal modeling suggests even a “current policy pathway” could achieve a larger reduction.
Beneath the headline targets, China is accelerating structural and industrial reforms. The country has released a 2025-26 work plan to ban new steel capacity and reduce production, aiming to curb pervasive overcapacity in one of the nation’s most carbon-intensive sectors. Furthermore, the national Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which was expanded this year to cover the steel, cement, and aluminum sectors, now encompasses 60% of China’s emissions. Analysts view this strong alignment between the decarbonization goals and the economic development agenda—especially its massive clean-energy boom—as the true engine that will drive greater carbon cuts over time.The economic reality driving these targets is apparent, as growth in electricity demand slowed to 5% in August, easing pressure on the grid. However, experts stress that China is at a crossroads: continuing the clean-energy boom would necessitate a major downsizing of the coal industry, a decision the leadership appears to be postponing. Looking ahead, future climate ambition will be signaled not only through the COP30 summit but also through the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), which will provide quantitative targets for the near term.
