Brazilian steelmaker Usiminas forecasts that domestic demand for steel will weaken during the fourth quarter of 2025. This anticipated slowdown is attributed to typical seasonal trends observed at year-end, compounded by a projected slowing of construction activity across Brazil. The company’s outlook aligns with broader trends of moderating global industrial demand expected toward late 2025.
Usiminas’ assessment provides a key indicator for the health of Brazil’s industrial sector and reflects the impact of tighter monetary conditions and less robust fiscal impulses forecast for the overall Brazilian economy in the near term. Since steel demand is highly correlated with major capital projects and durable goods, a slowdown signals a contractionary phase in investment-led growth.
This domestic deceleration is occurring despite recent positive growth in related sectors like mining, which has been buoyed by higher global prices for precious metals. For policymakers, the projected dip in steel demand reinforces the challenge of managing economic momentum and preventing a sharper industrial slowdown without sacrificing the gains made in easing inflation.
