Brazil News: Brazil’s state crop agency Conab forecast on 15 October 2026 that the 2026/27 Brazil grain harvest will reach a record 367.1 million tonnes, up 1.4% on the previous season, driven by more planted area for soybeans and corn while rice, beans and wheat stagnate or fall.
Key facts
- Conab’s first survey of the 2026/27 season puts total grain output at 367.1 million tonnes on 85.4 million hectares, a 2.3% rise in area.
- Soybeans are forecast at 181.6 million tonnes (+0.7%), which would be a national record; corn across three crops at 148 million tonnes.
- Rice is projected to fall 2.9% to about 10.8 million tonnes, and beans to hold near 2.9 million tonnes.
- The 2026 wheat crop is estimated at 5.7 million tonnes, 27.2% below 2025, after a 21.1% cut in planted area.
- Average yield is expected to slip, so the larger Brazil grain harvest comes almost entirely from expansion of farmed land.
How big is the Brazil grain harvest forecast?
Big, and slightly bigger than a month ago. In its September outlook, released on 15 September, the National Supply Company (Conab) had pencilled in 366.6 million tonnes, according to Poder360. The formal first survey, published on 15 October and reported by the federal news service Agência Gov, lifted that to 367.1 million tonnes. Against the 2025/26 harvest of 361.7 million tonnes, the increase is roughly 5 million tonnes.
The growth is about hectares, not productivity. Poder360’s breakdown of Conab’s numbers shows average yield easing 0.9%, from 4,335 to 4,296 kilograms per hectare. Brazil is producing more grain because it is planting more of it.
| Crop | 2026/27 forecast (Conab, 15 Oct) | Change vs previous season |
|---|---|---|
| Total grains | 367.1 million t | +1.4% |
| Soybeans | 181.6 million t | +0.7% |
| Corn (three crops) | 148.0 million t | +2.4% |
| Rice | 10.75 million t | −2.9% |
| Beans (three crops) | 2.93 million t | −0.7% |
| Cotton lint | 4.16 million t | +0.3% |
| Wheat (2026 winter crop) | 5.73 million t | −27.2% |
Two reporting details differ. Poder360 gave corn growth as 2.8% in the September outlook, while the October survey cited by Revista Cultivar and Agência Gov shows 2.4%. Second-crop corn moved from 113.2 to 113.3 million tonnes between the two releases.
Soy and corn carry the export story
Soybean planting covers 49.3 million hectares, up 1.4%. Conab expects soybean exports of about 118 million tonnes and domestic crushing of 63.76 million tonnes, Revista Cultivar reported. Planting had reached 9.4% of the area by 2 October, slightly ahead of the five-year average of 8.8%, with Paraná at 28.5% and Mato Grosso at 14.4%.
Corn is the faster mover. First-crop corn area is up 10.7% to 4.54 million hectares, and Poder360 said that harvest, at 32.1 million tonnes, would be the largest for that stage in 13 years. Conab links rising domestic corn use, forecast up 6.6%, to demand from animal feed, poultry and pork producers and corn-based ethanol plants.
The plate at home: rice, beans and bread
For Brazilian kitchens the picture is less comfortable. Rice and beans are the base of the daily meal across the country. Both are flat or shrinking.
Rice output is forecast at 10.75 million tonnes, roughly equal to Agência Gov’s estimate of domestic consumption at 10.8 million tonnes, with imports put at 1.3 million tonnes and exports seen falling 17.4%. Carryover stocks are projected to drop to 1.4 million tonnes by February 2028, 22.7% below the February 2027 level. Beans, at 2.93 million tonnes on 2.55 million hectares, face weather risk: Poder360 noted that Conab flagged possible El Niño pressure on yields.
Wheat is the sharpest fall. A crop of 5.73 million tonnes, down from a much larger 2025 harvest, points to a heavier reliance on imported grain for flour. Area shrank 21.1% to 1.93 million hectares, and yields were also lower.
Our view: a record Brazil grain harvest can hide a shift in what the country grows. Brazil is adding hectares to soy and corn, which feed export markets, livestock and ethanol, while the staples on its own dinner table stagnate. With World Food Day marked on 16 October, the Conab data show why food security in a farm superpower depends on the crop mix as much as on total tonnes. Planting is still at an early stage, and Conab will revise these numbers monthly.
For wider context, read our analysis of the IMF’s October 2026 outlook for BRICS economies and browse our agriculture and food sections.
FAQ
What is Conab?
The Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento is Brazil’s federal public supply company. It publishes monthly crop surveys that track planting, yields and supply balances.
Is 367.1 million tonnes a record?
If confirmed, yes. Reporting on Conab’s figures, Poder360 said it would be the largest crop in the historical series, above the 361.7 million tonnes of 2025/26.
Why is the wheat estimate so much lower?
Farmers planted 21.1% less wheat area in 2026 and yields were weaker, cutting the estimate to 5.73 million tonnes, 27.2% below 2025.
Sources: Conab, 1st survey 2026/27; Agência Gov; Revista Cultivar; Poder360.
