Economy News: The International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, released in Bangkok on 13 October, puts India at 7.0% growth this year and China at 4.5%. Brazil is forecast at 2.2%, South Africa at 1.0% and Russia at 0.9%. Emerging and developing economies as a group are expected to grow 3.7%, well ahead of advanced economies at 2.1%.
Key facts
- Released: 13 October 2026, at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.
- World growth: 3.1% in 2026, up from 3.0% in the July update, and 3.4% in 2027.
- Emerging and developing economies: 3.7% in 2026, rising to 4.4% in 2027.
- Oil: the IMF assumes an average of $96 a barrel in 2026, about 41% above 2025.
- Inflation: global inflation at 4.7% in 2026, easing to 4.1% in 2027.
How do the BRICS economies compare?
| Economy | 2026 forecast | 2027 forecast |
|---|---|---|
| India | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| China | 4.5% | 4.0% |
| Brazil | 2.2% | 1.9% |
| South Africa | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| Russia | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Euro area (for comparison) | 1.1% | 1.2% |
India stays the fastest-growing major economy, although the pace is down from 7.7% in 2025. China’s 4.5% matches the government’s own target for the year, after roughly 5% in 2025. In its summary posted on social media, the IMF also listed Saudi Arabia at minus 3.3% for 2026. Gulf producers are absorbing the shock from the Iran war and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Why is the outlook so uneven?
“The outlook is highly uneven,” said Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s director of research. The report describes growth being “reallocated across countries according to their exposure” to two forces: energy prices and artificial intelligence.
Energy is the bigger threat for most emerging markets. Higher oil and gas bills widen external deficits, weaken currencies and push up prices. The IMF’s baseline assumes Hormuz traffic resumes gradually from March 2027. If that slips, importers in South Asia and Africa will feel it first.
AI cuts the other way. The Fund notes that the United States and China account for more than three-quarters of net imports of AI computing hardware. Taiwan and South Korea supply most of it. Countries outside that value chain see little of the upside.
The Global South carries the world economy
Read the numbers from Beijing, New Delhi or Brasília rather than from Brussels and one fact stands out. The engines of growth are no longer in the West. The euro area is expected to grow 1.1% this year, France 0.4% and Italy 0.8%. Developing Asia is forecast at 5.1% and sub-Saharan Africa at 4.5%.
The IMF itself says 32 countries now generate 95% of global growth. Most of them are emerging economies. That is the argument BRICS governments have made for years when they ask for more weight in the IMF’s quota system and voting rights.
What are the risks?
- Debt: public debt in emerging and developing economies is projected to rise from 74% of GDP in 2025 to 84% by 2031.
- Markets: the IMF warns of a possible AI-related correction in equity markets and higher bond yields.
- Jobs: Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva estimates that about 40% of jobs worldwide will be affected by AI. She called it “a slow moving tsunami, but a tsunami nonetheless.”
- Cyber: cyberattacks that disrupt financial systems are listed among the downside risks.
The Fund’s policy advice is targeted support for vulnerable households instead of broad fuel subsidies, credible fiscal plans and investment in skills and renewable energy. For India, the next test comes with the Union Budget in early 2027. For China, the question is how much of the load domestic demand can carry as growth eases toward the 4.0% the IMF expects for 2027.
FAQ
Which BRICS economy grows fastest in 2026, according to the IMF?
India, with a forecast of 7.0% for 2026 and 7.0% for 2027.
What is the IMF forecast for China in 2026?
4.5% growth in 2026, slowing to 4.0% in 2027.
When was the October 2026 World Economic Outlook published?
On 13 October 2026, during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok.
Sources: AP via Fortune; BSS / AFP forecast table; The Week; IMF on X.
