At the Arctic Circle Assembly 2025 in Reykjavik, Canadian Defense Expert P. Whitney Lackenbauer stated that Russia’s current actions in the Arctic and on NATO’s borders constitute a strategic “competition” designed to “figure out what our tolerance is.” Lackenbauer, the Network Lead for The North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network, warned that failure to project an image of strength when dealing with Russia and China is detrimental. The debate over militarization in the Arctic, often miscast as the catalyst for conflict, is now a necessity as the region’s geopolitical importance increases.
Lackenbauer addressed lingering concerns about the US commitment to NATO, noting that while the potential for the Trump White House to “turn on a dime” still warrants caution, NATO itself is “stepping up” and demonstrating commitment to burden-sharing, which has assuaged previous deep-seated US frustrations. This need for collective strength is highlighted by recent Russian provocations, including the unprecedented scale of a drone incursion over Poland on September 10, where 19 Russian-made drones violated airspace, forcing NATO aircraft to scramble.The expert cautioned that the danger of miscalculation or unintended escalation into kinetic warfare is “very real” in the realm of hybrid threats—which include drone incidents, Russian propaganda, and cable-cutting. While NATO has shown restraint, Lackenbauer stressed the urgent need for the alliance to be “really clear in our messaging about what red lines are and actually hold on to that,” ensuring Russia’s continuous “below the threshold of armed conflict” activities are sufficiently deterred.
