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Iran Warns of Nuclear Doctrine Shift if Sanctions Are Reimposed

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Iran Signals a Potential Shift in Nuclear Doctrine if Sanctions Are Reimposed

Iran has issued a stark warning that it may reconsider its long-standing policy against nuclear weapons if the UN reinstates sanctions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal. This announcement comes after a contentious motion by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) censured Iran for its expanding uranium enrichment activities and lack of transparency.

Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, stated in a recent interview that while Iran possesses the technical capability to develop nuclear weapons, such a strategy does not currently align with its security doctrine. However, he hinted that renewed sanctions could force a reevaluation of this position, signaling a significant shift in Iran’s nuclear strategy.

Tensions with the West and European Diplomacy

Speaking ahead of critical talks in Geneva, Araghchi described the upcoming negotiations as a “brainstorming session” aimed at breaking the current diplomatic impasse. He expressed pessimism, accusing European nations of pursuing confrontation rather than cooperation.

Araghchi’s remarks follow a recent IAEA board meeting, where European nations criticized Iran for building a uranium stockpile with no apparent civilian purpose. Despite Iran’s offer to cap enrichment at 60% and permit nuclear inspectors, Araghchi claimed the Europeans disregarded these concessions in favor of punitive measures.

Implications of a Shift in Nuclear Policy

If sanctions are reinstated, Araghchi warned that Iran’s domestic debate on nuclear weapons could intensify. He suggested that many Iranians, including political elites, may view the current cooperative approach as ineffective, further fueling calls for a more assertive nuclear policy.

He stated, “If the snapback happens, we would have a crisis. It would convince everyone in Iran that our doctrine has been wrong.”

Iran’s current nuclear policy is guided by a fatwa issued by the Supreme Leader, prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons. However, Araghchi acknowledged that this position could be subject to review if geopolitical pressures escalate.

Regional Dynamics and Military Cooperation

The foreign minister also addressed Iran’s military collaboration with Russia, asserting that its partnership does not violate international norms despite Western criticism. Iran has faced accusations of supplying drones and arms to Russia for use in Ukraine, straining relations with Europe.

Araghchi defended Iran’s right to support allied groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, emphasizing that such support is based on cooperation rather than proxy control. He also downplayed recent claims by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Iran’s nuclear ambitions are a direct threat to Israel.

The Broader Geopolitical Context

The potential for a shift in Iran’s nuclear doctrine raises critical questions for global diplomacy and regional security. As Israel grapples with conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, and the US prepares to reassess its Middle East strategy, the stakes for all parties involved could not be higher.

Iran’s reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was elected on a platform of easing sanctions and fostering international engagement. However, with mounting domestic and international challenges, achieving these goals appears increasingly elusive.

As the Geneva talks proceed, the international community will watch closely to see if a diplomatic breakthrough can avert a potential crisis.

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