Egypt has issued an urgent public statement warning that Ethiopia’s continued unilateral and unregulated operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has caused sharp and unprecedented fluctuations in the water flow of the Blue Nile. The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation reported that between November 1 and 20, 2025, the average daily discharge from the GERD stood at roughly 180 million cubic meters per day, a level approximately 80% higher than the historical average of 100 million cubic meters for the same period. This erratic management is alleged to reflect an absence of technical and scientific controls in the dam’s operation, violating standard international practices for managing dams on transboundary rivers.
This pattern of sudden, uncoordinated water releases is highly concerning for downstream nations, especially Egypt and Sudan, as it disrupts their own water management and flood control systems. The Egyptian Ministry cited earlier instances in September and October where Ethiopia abruptly changed outflows, at times closing the emergency spillway to maximize storage before abruptly releasing large volumes. Such volatility threatens the safe operation of downstream dams and complicates the timing of irrigation cycles for Egyptian and Sudanese agriculture, risking both flooding and future water shortages.In response to the surge, Egypt announced it decided to open the Toshka Spillway to release the excess water and stabilize the hydraulic balance within its system. Cairo views these unilateral actions as a threat to its “existential interests” and water security, reiterating its demand for a legally binding agreement that regulates how the GERD is filled and operated during both flood and drought years. Ethiopia, which formally inaugurated the dam in September 2025, maintains that the GERD is vital for its development and power generation and has denied harming downstream nations.
