China’s foreign trade exhibited surprising strength in September, with both exports and imports significantly outperforming market forecasts despite the looming threat of renewed trade war hostilities from the US. Exports rose 8.3% year-on-year, the fastest pace since March and well above the expected 6.0% gain. Imports also surged 7.4%, marking their strongest growth since April 2024 and sharply exceeding the 1.5% consensus forecast. The upbeat data, released just days after US President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, underscores the short-term resilience of the world’s second-largest economy.
The buoyant export figures suggest that Chinese manufacturers are successfully diversifying away from the US market, which now accounts for less than 10% of China’s direct exports. Economists note that shipments to emerging markets—including India, Africa, and Southeast Asia—are hitting record highs, effectively cushioning the impact of Washington’s mounting tariffs. While this aggressive diversification provides crucial support, the overall trade surplus still narrowed to $90.45 billion from $102.33 billion in August, reflecting the concurrent jump in import demand and a steep, 27% drop in exports to the United States.
Although the robust trade performance suggests the immediate impact of the US-China trade friction is less severe than in previous rounds, the structural challenges remain. The current 90-day tariff truce expires around November 9, and analysts warn that momentum could still falter without a genuine recovery in domestic demand or a breakthrough in the expected Trump-Xi talks later this month. Chinese policymakers are now attempting to sustain this growth through targeted domestic support, even as the geopolitical fragmentation forces global supply chains to adapt to a permanently split trade landscape.
