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Armed Conflict in Syria Again: Outcome Uncertain

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On 28 November 2024, troops opposed to President Bashar al-Assad advanced toward Aleppo, the second-largest city in Syria and once its economic powerhouse.  The armed conflict in Syria had been relatively quiet in comparison with Israel-Palestine and Lebanon, centers of deep turmoil in the Middle East.

     The anti-al-Assad forces moving on Aleppo are led by the Islamic militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). However, the conflicts in Syria involve a large number of different armed groups who are known to have changed sides since the armed conflicts began in 2011 in Deraa with police repression of students who had painted graffiti on walls attacking al-Assad.   Foreign states such as the Russian Federation, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United States all play a role and have supported different factions at different times.  In addition, there is also an active role in the conflict of different Kurdish factions from Iraq and Turkey. The Iran-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah had been a strong backer of President al-Assad, but currently, its military and political forces have been severely weakened by Israeli action and thus are less able to play a role in Syria today.

     Russian armed forces have been the strongest supporters of al-Assad since September 2015.  Thus on 29 November 2024, the day after the attacks on Aleppo started, al-Assad flew to Moscow to assure himself of continued Russian support.  However, Russian soldiers are caught up in the war in Ukraine with few available for use elsewhere.  Yet, Russian aircraft are currently active in Syria.

     From March 2012, when the former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan was named as the joint envoy on the conflict in Syria of the United Nations and the League of Arab States, the Association of World Citizens (AWC) has been involved in efforts of conflict resolution in the Syria conflict.  Kofi Annan had created a conflict resolution foundation for peacebuilding with its office in Geneva.  I knew fairly well the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, Nabil el-Araby, the long-time Ambassador of Egypt to the U.N. and often in Geneva.  Proposals for peace settlements, the respect of human rights, and the respect of international humanitarian law were raised with diplomats and others participating in negotiations in Geneva.  Written presentations were distributed to non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and others of potential influence.

     At the United Nations in Geneva, efforts were made to create an atmosphere in which negotiations in good faith could be carried out.  Good faith, alas, has been in short supply, and no permanent advances were made.

     As the U.N. human rights bodies meet in Geneva, the Association of World Citizens raised with others the large number of human rights violations including arbitrary arrests and torture of those accused of opposition to the government.  There were also many human rights violations, violent shootings, and torture carried out by opposition groups, and these were also cited in the U.N. human rights bodies by NGOs.

     As the office of the High Commissioner for Refugees and the International Organization for Migration have their office in Geneva, the AWC has been concerned with the large number of persons displaced within Syria and the equally large number of refugees going to neighboring countries such as Lebanon and Turkey but also trying to come to Europe.

     It is difficult to know now if the current revival of fighting in Syria will continue or if it is an incident in a much longer story.  A situation to watch as closely as possible.

    René Wadlow, Association of World Citizens

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