As the war in the Middle East enters its second month, choking the world’s energy supply and sending oil prices soaring, China is trying to step in as a peacemaker.
It comes as President Donald Trump says US military action in Iran could end in “two to three weeks”, but there is no clear sense yet of how that will happen or what comes after.
China joins Pakistan, which has emerged as an unlikely mediator in the US-Israel war against Iran. Officials in Beijing and Islamabad have presented a five-point plan with the aim of bringing about a ceasefire and re-opening the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Pakistan, which has been a US ally in the past, seems to have won over Trump to mediate this conflict.
Beijing, however, is entering the fray as a rival to Washington, ahead of crucial trade talks between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Trump next month.
China’s backing on this is “very important,” says Zhu Yongbiao, a Middle East expert and director of the Centre for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University.
“Morally, politically and diplomatically, China is providing comprehensive support with the hope that Pakistan can play a more distinctive role.”
It is also a turnaround for Beijing, whose official response to the war has so far been quite muted. So why is China stepping in now?
The peace plan was drafted after Pakistan’s foreign minister flew to Beijing to ask for Chinese support for the country’s efforts to negotiate an end to this conflict.
His efforts appear to have worked. China’s Foreign Ministry said the two were making “new efforts towards advocating for peace.” The joint statement agreed that dialogue and diplomacy were “the only viable option to resolve conflicts”, and it called for waterways, including the blockaded strait, to be protected.
It’s not just about oil, although that will be a concern. China, the biggest importer of crude oil in the world, has enough stockpiled to get it through the next few months.
Beijing will likely have decided to play the role of peacemaker because the war in Iran jeopardises something Xi covets: stability. China needs a stable global economy as it is heavily reliant on selling goods around the world as it tries to revive an ailing domestic economy.
“If the rest of the world begins to slow down economically because of an energy shock, that’s going to be tough for China’s factories and exporters,” says Matt Pottinger, Chairman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracy’s China Program.
“That’s why I think when I see China’s foreign minister just this week advising Iran that we need to find a way to end this war, I think there’s some sincerity there. I think that Beijing is a little bit worried about where this could lead if it turns into a real energy shock that is protracted.”
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