The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its economic outlook for Saudi Arabia, raising the projected GDP growth rate for 2025 to 4%, up from its earlier forecast of 3%. This optimistic revision is based on the expectation of a faster-than-anticipated unwinding of oil production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement, which will boost oil-sector output. The IMF also revised its 2026 growth forecast to 4%.
Simultaneously, the IMF noted the strong and resilient performance of the non-oil sector, which is a core pillar of the country’s Vision 2030 diversification plan. The non-oil economy has continued to expand robustly, with growth vastly outperforming overall GDP growth in the first half of 2025 (4.8% growth in the non-oil sector contributed over 55% to total GDP).The acceleration of growth in Saudi Arabia is expected to catalyze economic vitality across the broader Middle East and Central Asia region. The IMF’s confidence reflects the success of the Kingdom’s immense investments in sectors like tourism, manufacturing, and advanced technology as it works to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons. The upward revision signals market confidence in the nation’s capacity to navigate global energy market dynamics while advancing its long-term economic transformation.
