The prospect of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel remains a distant horizon, despite strong US-led efforts and flourishing Saudi economic ties with American entities close to President Donald Trump (such as the massive $55 billion acquisition of gaming giant Electronic Arts partially financed by Saudi PIF). Analysts are divided on the immediate path forward. Hadas Lorber of the INSS sees positive signs in the involvement of figures like Jared Kushner and Tony Blair in plans for Gaza’s reconstruction—a proposed tax-free tech hub—suggesting a gradual normalization model is possible. However, this approach would postpone the sensitive issue of a two-state solution, with Israel merely acknowledging the aspiration for Palestinian self-determination “in the future.”
The current reality on the ground makes immediate normalization difficult. Dr. Yoel Guzansky of INSS states that the agreement is “still a long way off,” arguing that Israel has not recovered the status it had before the October 7 massacre, which Hamas reportedly intended to thwart the normalization prospect. Dr. Michal Yaari of the Hebrew University reinforces this, stating that Saudi insistence on Palestinian statehood stems from a fundamental belief that regional economic and security interests—including attracting foreign investors and tourists—cannot be sustained while the conflict continues to fuel hatred and Islamic jihadi organizations.Furthermore, the public sentiment in the Gulf States has turned strongly negative after witnessing the events in Gaza, exposing Israel’s perceived weakness and damage to its reputation as a reliable military and diplomatic power. Saudi Arabia’s primary focus remains on securing its own stability and regional influence, especially in places like Syria, before becoming involved in Gaza reconstruction. Normalization with Israel is conditional on a stabilizing post-war situation with strong US guarantees and visible progress on the diplomatic track with the Palestinian leadership.
