The formal peace agreement signed in November 2022 between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is facing renewed instability and high concern from international observers. Despite the accord marking the cessation of hostilities in the brutal two-year civil conflict, key political benchmarks of the deal are slipping. Crucially, parliamentary sessions continue without the official participation of Tigray’s elected representatives, a major point of friction that undermines the political normalization process.
This persistent exclusion, coupled with recent accusations by the TPLF of federal government drone strikes in Tigray and Afar border areas, raises tangible fears of a resurgence in conflict. The continued absence of Tigrayan representatives in the federal legislature signals a failure to fully implement the political component of the peace deal, which promised to restore constitutional order and political participation to the region. The TPLF has consistently warned that the integrity of the accord is at risk without full implementation of all provisions.The breakdown in the political process complicates Ethiopia’s broader efforts to achieve stability and economic recovery. The perception of peace is vital for the government’s ability to secure necessary debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework and attract critical foreign direct investment. Observers are urging both sides to adhere strictly to the terms of the Pretoria Agreement and prioritize inclusive political dialogue to prevent a costly return to armed conflict.
