The IMF projects that Kenya’s GDP would surpass that of Angola, pushing it up to fourth position in sub-Saharan Africa. Ethiopia is expected to surpass both Angola and Kenya to become the third-largest economy in Africa.
Although the IMF had previously forecasted that Ethiopia will overcome Kenya to become Eastern Africa’s largest economy in its October 2022 estimate, it is now expected to overtake both Angola and Kenya to become the third largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa.
When the IMF raised its previous forecast for the country’s GDP in 2023 from $126 billion to $156.1 billion, Ethiopia gained ground on Kenya. 46 of the 54 countries on the continent, absent giants like Morocco and Egypt, are located in sub-Saharan Africa.
Nigeria continues to have Africa’s largest economy, followed by South Africa ($399 billion) and Ethiopia ($156.1 billion), with a GDP of $506.6 billion at current prices.
The April 2023 forecast shows that the IMF’s October 2018 estimate of Kenya’s GDP size of Ksh15.7 trillion ($1117.6 billion) has now been marginally revised upward to Ksh15.8 trillion ($118.1 billion).
The competition for economic dominance in Eastern Africa has mostly been a fight to attract foreign investment, especially in the industrial and agricultural sectors, between Kenya and Ethiopia.
According to the IMF, Kenya won’t hold on to third position for very long since Angola is expected to retake it next year until Nairobi retakes it in 2027.
The IMF estimated that Angola will have a GDP of $135 billion this year, making it the third-largest economy after Ethiopia. The global lender did not, however, revise its 2022 forecasts, which saw the West African nation’s GDP moving up to third place in the region, surpassing Nairobi.
According to IMF forecasts published in October 2022, Angola overtook Kenya last year as a consequence of a rebound in GDP brought about by rising oil prices.
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